We are in for some real shit coming down the pike regarding our food supply, control of production and prices.

Who is purchasing US commodities now with Trump’s tariffs in place?

What do we know right now?

On “Liberation Day”, the Trump Administration implemented (and then not, and then again, and then again not) a series of tariffs on all our trading partners in the world. I won’t get into to what tariffs are because I believe we are all getting a pretty good, continued education on the subject.

Many countries implemented counter tariffs of their own on US products, but more importantly, EVERY country immediately began to negotiate with new sources for important commodities that the US farmers provide (corn, beef, pork, wheat, soy beans, etc.) China is a huge market for soybeans, pork, wheat and corn and with the ,… what,.. 165% tariff? that the US has levied on China, they quit buying US commodities, sourcing instead from Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Canada, etc. But no longer with the United States.

One of the first, and stupidest things that Trump and his derelicts did was cancel and destroy the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which annually purchases an important part of US farmers commodities which then are made available to other countries through various programs.

So, …”Who is buying American commodities now with Trump’s tariffs in place?” I would say the answer is … “nobody is or will be“, unless there is no other option, or if they are pressured into buying from the US. I see no strategy or positive benefit from the administration’s rhetoric or actions. In fact, Trump is destroying our economy and future with his tariffs which he is using to line his own pockets.

What is happening with labor in the Ag Sector?

The labor market is being destroyed as Immigrant and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents raid farms, home improvement stores, courts, restaurants, hotels, or what have you in their search of brown/black/yellow/red skins to put into Trump concentration camps. It is pretty much a no brainer that many farms/ranches/factories have lost their labor force for at least a year. And honestly, after the work of Trump and ICE, there will be problems with labor for years to come (of course, robotics will be used more heavily).

What about collapses of Red Ag State Economies? Will that be an issue?

For years, irresponsible and/or stupid GOP State Congressmen/women in Red States have cut taxes for large corporations and the wealthy, suggesting that with more money in their pockets, the corporations and wealthy will invest more, and create more jobs. We all know that the “trickle down effect” does not work, or that is,… everyone except uninformed and/or uneducated GOP congressional State Representatives. So after years of giving tax breaks to the wealthy and large corporations, now the Red States do not have a budget for infrastructure, education, health or anything. So many Red States will “go broke” (need Federal assistance to operate).

There seems to be a general lack of understanding or reading of history on the part of Red State GOP politicians, especially as related to agriculture production and markets.

And to answer the question,… of course the collapse of the State government will impact farmers and ag production. Many Red States will have to request Federal Funding to bail them out, after making many bad decisions over many years.

And where does an important part of federal revenue come from? Yeah, the Blue States that actually raise tax revenue from corporations as well as from healthy state economies. Blue states will have to bail out the Red states, while the politicians in the Red states seem intent on doing harm to the people responsible for bailing them out?

Final Insult to our Local Farmers

The final insult by Trump and his administration, was to cut funding for local food banks purchasing fresh produce from small, local producers in the community. For several years now, food banks like Neighborhood Impact, have been building relationships with local farmers. It is proven that fresh vegetables and fresh fruit are healthier to consume than frozen or canned goods. So for several years now, food banks have provided local produce to people who need it. This worked great because in addition to the nutrition getting to people who need it, the local producers receive a decent price for their crops/produce. Trump, Elon and his cauldron of criminals did their math and decided that 900 million dollars was too much money to spend on poor people’s diets. As they extended the tax cuts for the richest people people in the United States and plunged the US deeper into debt.

Restricting access to food is happening in the United States where somewhere between 30-40% of food produced, never reaches the table and/or is thrown away.

Tariffs + No Farm Labor + Red State Budget Shortfalls = Ag Sector Collapse Across the US

There is no getting around it, crops are standing in the field and many will not find their way to dinner tables this year. The tariffs have closed the global market for most US farmers (for at least this season). The shameful ICE program is decimating the availability of farm labor. And uninformed and/or stupid State Legislators in Red, Ag States will request free money from the Trump (really the taxes collected in Blue States) to backstop their State budgets in the red.

Already farm and ranch owners are sweating out the future. Many say they support Trump because “other countries have been taking advantage of us for years”, with tears streaming down their cheeks. Even Trump knows this is just dumb! But Red America has bought it hook, line and sinker, so they hang on until the end. So now, many will lose their farms and ranches as annual lines of credit become due and markets collapse.

Final Bonus Questions:

Who will purchase the bankrupt farms and ranches?

Please take a guess on how many farms and ranches will go bankrupt in each State during the coming year? Will some States suffer more than others?

Who or how will labor needs be addressed for ag producers for next season and in the future?

With the collapse of the ag sector, what will happen to commodity prices and who will control them?

Please put your answers in the comments below and let’s be nice to each other as we discuss this? Thank you.

My Background

To start off, I want to mention a few things about me, my experience and my education. I grew up on a Montana cattle ranch/wheat farm. Until I was 30 years old, I was involved with managing a 30,000 acre operation. In the early 1980s and under a lot of financial stress, a brother and I worked out a land sale to pay off a Production Credit Association (PCA) line of credit that was at 21% (annual interest rate of 21%!). And after that we broke approximately 6000 acres of rangeland and converted it to farm ground to go with the cattle operation. I have two brothers with large cattle/wheat ranches in Montana. Another brother that is building a large ranch on the Snake River, and another brother that is a large and small animal veterinarian. Ag was and is the foundation for many of my immediate family member’s lives.

I have worked in a dairy, personally milking 120 cows twice a day. I have sheared sheep. I have rode bulls and broncs. I can run almost any sort of agricultural machinery, with 10 minutes of orientation. I grew up country and ag is in my bones. I consider myself a well traveled, Montana country boy. Country boy being the most important characteristic.

A couple of other things that I want to mention is that I have imported from Spain and Mexico to the United States for years (since 2012). I have paid US tariffs on Spanish merchandise with the highest tariff being a 15% tariff on coffee cups. Short story – after I imported mugs once, I realized that I could not price them competitively with the tariff on top, so I quit importing mugs from Spain. And right now our company has put a hold on most imports from Europe (25% tariff) until there is more stability and clarity in the market.

One final thing is that I have a Masters of International Affairs from Columbia University. I studied international economics and economic development. I have worked and lived in four different countries (New Zealand, Honduras, Chile & Spain). I understand what fascism is, and I have lived in a country where a military dictator was in charge that nobody questioned. Even when if it involved a young girl going missing from the population, and the principal suspect being the military dictator.

So this is some of the experiences that inform my opinion.